Nov 01 2008

The Chaos Can - and May - Happen in NCAAF


by Simon M Skinner

USC is good this year, with a lot of talent, and the SEC, too, is rolling again. Ohio State looks okay, but it seems to fall short in big games. However, there are some things that are pretty much the same year after year when it comes to college football. Do you want to know something else that is? That's that every single week, big upsets will happen in college football. What does this mean for you? Don't just bet on your favorites, and rely on your instincts, too. Besides that, though, you have to be ready to be a laughingstock (at least a little bit) if those instincts, too, are wrong.

We all have our own strategies for betting on college football. And a good one to use is to expect upsets. Here are a few upset situations to keep in mind when making your picks:

If a team has just won a game important to them, they might be too happy, relaxed and confident to prepare properly for the next game.
If the opponent is from the conference and is unranked, they know the opponent very well even if they're not a BCS Bull team.
If a team is playing a primetime game on national TV with all the attention on them and they're not used to the stage, watch out. There are more situations to pay attention to, but these are good ones to start with.

In the 2008 season, upsets have already begun to happen. For example, Oregon State beat USC even though everybody thought USC was going to be in the BCS Championship game. In fact, everyone thought that playing Oregon State was going to be a letdown for USC. In fact, this was true. Florida was beaten by Mississippi because Mississippi made some big plays and had some luck. That said, though, anything is possible in the SEC. What do both of the games just discussed have in common? Both involved conference opponents who were unranked.

There are other upsets which are harder to predict ? especially when an unranked team doesn't get a lot of attention and is less well known nationally. For instance, Appalachian State's victory over Michigan in the Big House last year. Nor are Bowl games free form upsets ? remember Boise State vs. Oklahoma? This punctured the long held view that the bigger programs win the big games.

The Top 25 has some nontraditional powers, which means that more BCS Bowl upsets could be due this year. Boise State, Utah and Brigham Young University could all pull out all the stops if they play in front of a national audience in a big bowl game. Connecticut and Wake Forest aren't renowned for their programs in football, but their talent is formidable enough that they, too, could bring some excitement -- and upsets -- into big bowl games, too.

The point is this, you always have to be prepared for the upset. Look out for those upset situations highlighted above. Never go on autopilot when you're making your online bets. No team and no game is ever guaranteed or 100%. Dig into the matchup and find the upset before it happens to rake in some cash.

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